A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility

This paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive and ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The main axiom is cumulative dominance, which adapts stochastic dominance to decision making under uncertainty. We derive a Choquet expected utility representation and show that a modification of cumulative dominance leads to the classical expected utility representation. The relationship of our approach with that of Schmeidler, who uses a two-stage formulation to derive Choquet expected utility, is also explored. Our work may be viewed as a unification of Schmeidler (1989) and Gilboa (1987)

A Single-Stage Approach to Anscombe and Aumann's Expected Utility

Anscombe and Aumann showed that if one accepts the existence of a physical randomizing device such as a roulette wheel then Savage's derivation of subjective expected utility can be considerably simplified. They, however, invoked compound gambles to define their axioms. We demonstrate that the subjective expected utility derivation can be further simplified and need not invoke compound gambles. Our simplification is obtained by closely following the steps by which probabilities and utilities are elicited

Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility

Two core meanings of “utility” are distinguished. “Decision utility” is the weight of an outcome in a decision. “Experienced utility” is hedonic quality, as in Bentham’s usage. Experienced utility can be reported in real time (instant utility), or in retrospective evaluations of past episodes (remembered utility). Psychological research has documented systematic errors in retrospective evaluations, which can induce a preference for dominated options. We propose a formal normative theory of the total experienced utility of temporally extended outcomes. Measuring the experienced utility of outcomes permits tests of utility maximization and opens other lines of empirical research

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society

Search for Lensing Signatures in the Gravitational-Wave Observations from the First Half of LIGO–Virgo’s Third Observing Run

International audienceWe search for signatures of gravitational lensing in the gravitational-wave signals from compact binary coalescences detected by Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) and Advanced Virgo during O3a, the first half of their third observing run. We study: (1) the expected rate of lensing at current detector sensitivity and the implications of a non-observation of strong lensing or a stochastic gravitational-wave background on the merger-rate density at high redshift; (2) how the interpretation of individual high-mass events would change if they were found to be lensed; (3) the possibility of multiple images due to strong lensing by galaxies or galaxy clusters; and (4) possible wave-optics effects due to point-mass microlenses. Several pairs of signals in the multiple-image analysis show similar parameters and, in this sense, are nominally consistent with the strong lensing hypothesis. However, taking into account population priors, selection effects, and the prior odds against lensing, these events do not provide sufficient evidence for lensing. Overall, we find no compelling evidence for lensing in the observed gravitational-wave signals from any of these analyses

All-sky search in early O3 LIGO data for continuous gravitational-wave signals from unknown neutron stars in binary systems

International audienceRapidly spinning neutron stars are promising sources of continuous gravitational waves. Detecting such a signal would allow probing of the physical properties of matter under extreme conditions. A significant fraction of the known pulsar population belongs to binary systems. Searching for unknown neutron stars in binary systems requires specialized algorithms to address unknown orbital frequency modulations. We present a search for continuous gravitational waves emitted by neutron stars in binary systems in early data from the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors using the semicoherent, GPU-accelerated, binaryskyhough pipeline. The search analyzes the most sensitive frequency band of the LIGO detectors, 50–300 Hz. Binary orbital parameters are split into four regions, comprising orbital periods of three to 45 days and projected semimajor axes of two to 40 light seconds. No detections are reported. We estimate the sensitivity of the search using simulated continuous wave signals, achieving the most sensitive results to date across the analyzed parameter space

GWTC-2.1: Deep extended catalog of compact binary coalescences observed by LIGO and Virgo during the first half of the third observing run

International audienceThe second Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog, GWTC-2, reported on 39 compact binary coalescences observed by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors between 1 April 2019 15∶00 UTC and 1 October 2019 15∶00 UTC. Here, we present GWTC-2.1, which reports on a deeper list of candidate events observed over the same period. We analyze the final version of the strain data over this period with improved calibration and better subtraction of excess noise, which has been publicly released. We employ three matched-filter search pipelines for candidate identification, and estimate the probability of astrophysical origin for each candidate event. While GWTC-2 used a false alarm rate threshold of 2 per year, we include in GWTC-2.1, 1201 candidates that pass a false alarm rate threshold of 2 per day. We calculate the source properties of a subset of 44 high-significance candidates that have a probability of astrophysical origin greater than 0.5. Of these candidates, 36 have been reported in GWTC-2. We also calculate updated source properties for all binary black hole events previously reported in GWTC-1. If the eight additional high-significance candidates presented here are astrophysical, the mass range of events that are unambiguously identified as binary black holes (both objects ≥3M⊙) is increased compared to GWTC-2, with total masses from ∼14M⊙ for GW190924_021846 to ∼182M⊙ for GW190426_190642. Source properties calculated using our default prior suggest that the primary components of two new candidate events (GW190403_051519 and GW190426_190642) fall in the mass gap predicted by pair-instability supernova theory. We also expand the population of binaries with significantly asymmetric mass ratios reported in GWTC-2 by an additional two events (the mass ratio is less than 0.65 and 0.44 at 90% probability for GW190403_051519 and GW190917_114630 respectively), and find that two of the eight new events have effective inspiral spins χeff>0 (at 90% credibility), while no binary is consistent with χeff<0 at the same significance. We provide updated estimates for rates of binary black hole and binary neutron star coalescence in the local Universe

GWTC-2.1: Deep extended catalog of compact binary coalescences observed by LIGO and Virgo during the first half of the third observing run

International audienceThe second Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog, GWTC-2, reported on 39 compact binary coalescences observed by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors between 1 April 2019 15∶00 UTC and 1 October 2019 15∶00 UTC. Here, we present GWTC-2.1, which reports on a deeper list of candidate events observed over the same period. We analyze the final version of the strain data over this period with improved calibration and better subtraction of excess noise, which has been publicly released. We employ three matched-filter search pipelines for candidate identification, and estimate the probability of astrophysical origin for each candidate event. While GWTC-2 used a false alarm rate threshold of 2 per year, we include in GWTC-2.1, 1201 candidates that pass a false alarm rate threshold of 2 per day. We calculate the source properties of a subset of 44 high-significance candidates that have a probability of astrophysical origin greater than 0.5. Of these candidates, 36 have been reported in GWTC-2. We also calculate updated source properties for all binary black hole events previously reported in GWTC-1. If the eight additional high-significance candidates presented here are astrophysical, the mass range of events that are unambiguously identified as binary black holes (both objects ≥3M⊙) is increased compared to GWTC-2, with total masses from ∼14M⊙ for GW190924_021846 to ∼182M⊙ for GW190426_190642. Source properties calculated using our default prior suggest that the primary components of two new candidate events (GW190403_051519 and GW190426_190642) fall in the mass gap predicted by pair-instability supernova theory. We also expand the population of binaries with significantly asymmetric mass ratios reported in GWTC-2 by an additional two events (the mass ratio is less than 0.65 and 0.44 at 90% probability for GW190403_051519 and GW190917_114630 respectively), and find that two of the eight new events have effective inspiral spins χeff>0 (at 90% credibility), while no binary is consistent with χeff<0 at the same significance. We provide updated estimates for rates of binary black hole and binary neutron star coalescence in the local Universe

Searches for continuous gravitational waves from young supernova remnants in the early third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Virgo

We present results of three wide-band directed searches for continuous gravitational waves from 15 young supernova remnants in the first half of the third Advanced LIGO and Virgo observing run. We use three search pipelines with distinct signal models and methods of identifying noise artifacts. Without ephemerides of these sources, the searches are conducted over a frequency band spanning from 10~Hz to 2~kHz. We find no evidence of continuous gravitational radiation from these sources. We set upper limits on the intrinsic signal strain at 95% confidence level in sample sub-bands, estimate the sensitivity in the full band, and derive the corresponding constraints on the fiducial neutron star ellipticity and $r$-mode amplitude. The best 95% confidence constraints placed on the signal strain are $7.7\times 10^{-26}$ and $7.8\times 10^{-26}$ near 200~Hz for the supernova remnants G39.2--0.3 and G65.7+1.2, respectively. The most stringent constraints on the ellipticity and $r$-mode amplitude reach $\lesssim 10^{-7}$ and $\lesssim 10^{-5}$, respectively, at frequencies above $\sim 400$~Hz for the closest supernova remnant G266.2--1.2/Vela Jr